30 Jan 2014
Posted by admin 
By Ki
SSuper Bowl Sunday is the biggest gambling day of the year. Millions watch the game and just about everyone has some sort of wager on it, whether it’s buying a few boxes in your office pool or placing a large bet in Las Vegas (or offshore). For many, the actual game is an afterthought to all of the gambling, partying, commercials, food and booze.One way to get in on the action is to pick some of the special Super Bowl props that many betting outlets offer. How long will the national anthem take? Will Anthony Kiedis take his shirt off during half time? ADANAI wants to prognosticate a few of these extraneous quandaries just for you.
For the novices, if the odds are indicated with a + sign then they show the amount you would win for a $100 stake. If there is a – sign then they show how much you need to stake to win $100. Therefore, if the odds are +200, betting $100 and winning the wager would amount to a $200 profit. If the odds are -120, betting $120 and winning would mean a $100 profit.
Will the opening coin toss land on Heads or Tails?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Heads | -105 |
| Tails | -105 |
On the face of it, this seems like a silly bet. The chances of each outcome are 50% and the -105 odds create a negative expected outcome. One of the outcomes would need to come up 52.5% of the time to break even and unless the NFL has a weighted coin, that shouldn’t be the case. One could retort that this bet is actually better odds than betting black in roulette and that is factually true, but in a casino you get free drinks.
ADANAI recommendation:
Stay away. Flip a coin with your friends at your Super Bowl party and avoid the house edge. If you really want to turbo-charge your party, play for shots of Patron instead of cash.
Renee Fleming – How long will it take her to sing the National Anthem (from the first note until she completes saying Brave)?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Over 143.5 seconds | -120 |
| Under 143.5 seconds | -120 |
Renee Fleming is an opera singer, which means she is able to and likely will extend her notes for effect. She sang the anthem in 2003 during the World Series but there is no tape out there of her performance – zero help there. The over/under is 143.5 seconds or 2:23.5. Last year, Alicia Keys went super long at 2:35 but really got into the piano part of it. Four of the last six performances have been under 2:00. The real wildcard is the cold weather and how that might impact her voice and desire to take too many risks with long notes.
ADANAI recommendation:
Go under. The knee jerk reaction is to go over because of the opera angle but 2:23 is a long time. Should that number come down then maybe it is worth revisiting but right now, betting she goes under is the right wager.
Peyton Manning – How many times will he say “Omaha” during the game?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Over 28.5 Omahas | -115 |
| Under 28.5 Omahas | -125 |
When Peyton Manning does his magic at the line of scrimmage and starts yelling things and pointing all over the place, one of the key words he yells out is “Omaha.” Many have tried to guess what it means but it doesn’t really matter. It has taken on a life of its own, especially in the city of Omaha and state of Nebraska.
For the AFC Championship game, the Omaha Chamber of Commerce pledged $800 to Manning’s charity for each time Manning said the word. He said it 31 times raising $24,800. The Chamber of Commerce just announced that for the Super Bowl they are pledging $1,500 per Omaha to Manning’s charity. Beyond the financial incentive, the game conditions may create more opportunities for Manning to rack up the Omahas. The wind and tough Seattle defense will limit long plays for Denver. They will need to win the game with lots of short plays. A larger number of plays equals more Omahas.
ADANAI recommendation:
Back up the bus on the over.
Will Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chili Peppers play a song on stage together during the half time show?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Yes | -275 |
| No | +190 |
Bruno Mars got his start as an Elvis impersonator and does amazing covers. He has a whole show in Las Vegas planned where he will do a diverse set of cover songs. This skill lends itself to collaboration. Also, when multiple groups get slated to perform at the Super Bowl, they tend to collaborate with one another.
ADANAI recommendation:
“Yes” seems like the obvious answer but the odds are not very good at -275 so play at your own risk.
Will any of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during the half time show?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Yes | +170 |
| No | -250 |
Seems unlikely the Red Hot Chili Peppers would get on stage at Super Bowl without some skin being shown.
This may be the funniest prop of them all. Going shirtless is the band’s “thing.” This is the biggest stage they have ever played on. Yes, it is cold. Yes, the NFL is going to be careful about image (remember Janet Jackson and her wardrobe malfunction) but it’s really hard to believe they’ll be able to resist.
ADANAI recommendation:
Bet on “yes.” It will be fun and the odds are good.
What color will the Gatorade (or other liquid) be that is dumped on the head coach of the winning team?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Blue | +750 |
| Chicken Broth | +5000 |
| Clear / Water | +200 |
| Hot Chocolate | +5000 |
| Lime Green | +1000 |
| No Gatorade / Liquid Bath | Even |
| Orange | +450 |
| Red | +750 |
| Yellow | +350 |
Denver head coach John Fox had emergency heart surgery in November after collapsing on the golf course. His return has been a great story but it would be really dumb for the players to dump cold (or hot) liquid on him should Denver win. Last year, there was no liquid bath, but in past years it has mostly been clear.
ADANAI recommendation:
Betting “no liquid” is clearly the favorite. Clear is also an option and Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is the type of guy the players will want to get. Therefore, the best play is to bet half of what you would bet on this on “no liquid” and half on “clear.”
Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the game thank first?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Coaches / Owner | +800 |
| Does not thank anyone or mention any on the list | +275 |
| Family | +500 |
| Fans | +500 |
| God | Even |
| Teammates | +200 |
This is a fun one. Some simple deduction can help get to the right answer. Since 1967, the Quarterback has won the Super Bowl MVP 27 of 42 times. Also, six of the last seven winners have been Quarterbacks. If Denver wins, it is very hard to see anyone winning other than Peyton Manning. For Seattle, it is likely going to be QB Russell Wilson or star Running Back Marshawn Lynch. Seattle is known for their defense but a defensive player has only won seven times in the history of the Super Bowl. Therefore those three players are the favorites.
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll knows the feel of a Gatorade shower (notice Mark Sanchez in the foreground of this picture from USC).
A quick look at YouTube provides some good insight. Peyton Manning ALWAYS thanks his teammates. Russell Wilson is a team guy and is quick to compliment his teammates. And last, Marshawn Lynch doesn’t talk to the press.
ADANAI recommendation:
Betting on “teammates” is the play. “God” is the favorite because that is the stereotype but that stereotype is creating good value in the “teammates” wager.
What will be the Fahrenheit temperature in East Rutherford, NJ at 6:00 p.m. EST?
| Temperature | Odds |
| 25 degrees Fahrenheit or lower | +800 |
| 26 degrees Fahrenheit | +2200 |
| 27 degrees Fahrenheit | +2000 |
| 28 degrees Fahrenheit | +1500 |
| 29 degrees Fahrenheit | +1300 |
| 30 degrees Fahrenheit | +1200 |
| 31 degrees Fahrenheit | +1000 |
| 32 degrees Fahrenheit | +700 |
| 33 degrees Fahrenheit | +500 |
| 34 degrees Fahrenheit | +450 |
| 35 degrees Fahrenheit | +450 |
| 36 degrees Fahrenheit | +650 |
| 37 degrees Fahrenheit | +800 |
| 38 degrees Fahrenheit | +1500 |
| 39 degrees Fahrenheit | +2000 |
| 40 degrees Fahrenheit or higher | +400 |
The forecast right now for Sunday night is 28 degrees. Sunset is at 5:15pm EST so expect the temperature to start dropping fast by the time 6:00 p.m. comes around. Therefore, it is very likely that the temperature will drop below 32 degrees.
ADANAI recommendation:
If you buy into 32 degrees being the highest possible temperature, there is an easy way to make a nice profit: take the amount you would bet on this in total, divide by eight and bet an even amount on each category 32 degrees and lower. For ease, if you were betting $80 in total, your worst-case scenario (assuming it isn’t above freezing) is breaking even at 32 degrees and your best-case scenario is winning $150 at 26 degrees.
